23 Apr
Posted by Jim Nguyen as Baseball, Fantasy Sports, MLB, Virtual Sports
Fantasy sports is obsessed with statistics, there is no doubt about that. Take this baseball season for example. Baseball is a statistics-driven sport, and fantasy baseball takes that idea to an even higher level. Any and all baseball stats can be used for the purpose of scoring. From games played, to number of batters thrown out, to hitting for the cycle or hitting a grand slam, baseball is a statistical sport that can be tracked for fantasy purposes.
But does fantasy take into account other, non-statistical numbers? Of course not. Should it? I believe so. Fantasy baseball covers just about any statistic imaginable, but some characteristics are not measured by statistics. In the real world of sports, stats might not be so important in some instances, being superseded by the context of the moment. What are some of the most exciting moments in baseball, you can ask yourself. Well, how about getting a game-winning hit in the bottom of the 9th, with two outs and a runner on third? In the fantasy sports world, you will get credit for a hit and an RBI perhaps, worthy credit for a job well done. But is it enough? Shouldn’t that hit and RBI be worth more due to the “clutch” factors involved? One can argue that this sort of hit is worth more points since it’s ostensibly more difficult to deliver that type of hit than say, an RBI single in the 4th inning of a game and the batter’s team is ahead by 5 runs. Every kid dreams of getting that clutch hit or out, shouldn’t that be good enough for fantasy consideration?
There are several other examples of this. How about a pitcher getting out of a bases loaded jam after giving up three consecutive singles? How about a batter hitting the ball into a gap intentionally? How about an outfielder making a spectacular assist? These plays will all make it into the stat box and may be counted for fantasy purposes, but does the box score and resulting fantasy points given really reflect the quality of the play given the circumstances?
I would argue that fantasy baseball and fantasy stats in general do a wonderful job of allowing us to have our own team, track stats and compete with others. For instance, Yahoo! Fantasy Sports has categories for just about every stat imaginable. But perhaps we should bring our fantasy stats more in line with what’s happening in the real game. That would provide, for lack of a better phrase, a more realistic fantasy experience. We can give bonus points for those clutch hits, those strikeouts in pressure situations of a tight ball game. One may argue that this makes the fantasy sports game too subjective, but I truly believe we can improve our fantasy sports experience while maintaining objectivity. A walk-off homerun is what it is, as is the game-winning hit in an extra inning ballgame.
If we came up with every statistic imaginable, you’d need a 15 foot wide screen to review your fantasy team pages. Many bonus stats can be augmented onto existing stats like hits, strikeouts, and so on so it’s not overly cumbersome. And still bring us closer to the games we love. We shouldn’t stop with baseball either, as I see applications for football and basketball. In this way, we’re more a part of the “real” part of the games while keeping our “fantasies” alive.
Isn’t that what fantasy sports is all about?
2 Responses
Randal Burgess
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:05 am
1Great point, Jim. The only caveat is that there are a lot of fantasy sports owners out there that would find statistics such as “clutch average” or “BAWROB” to be too confusing or not worth the time for analysis. Lord knows I would never be able to get my MLB league to crack out of the 5X5 scoring we’ve had for the past seven years.
So, the question becomes more about how to gauge the long tail of the fantasy market: how many features and/or stats can be tracked economically for these fantasy businesses vs the demand from the consumers? You have to take into account what the stat firms charge to provide these new stats + the processing power it takes to add them to the database system to see if a firm can make money on the number of fantasy leagues that want more complexity.
The profit per fantasy league dives as you move along the graph unless you can find enough new leagues that want to play the game “closer to reality” as you are proposing.
Personally, I think over time that fantasy sports fans will “evolve” and ask for more stats, more game types, and to break into the “other sports” that aren’t the Big 4 (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL) and we’re already seeing more and more of it right now (NASCAR, PGA, Premier League).
Jim Nguyen
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:54 am
2Thanks for your comments, Randall. I think you bring up some excellent points, e.g. the profitability for fantasy sports league providers to make these stats available. I think there is room to grow and improve for sure and would not be surprised to see fantasy and reality come closer together in regards to my post.
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